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Yes, You Can Time the Market! By Ben Stein, Phil DeMuth
PDF Download Yes, You Can Time the Market! By Ben Stein, Phil DeMuth
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- Sales Rank: #611930 in Books
- Published on: 2004-09-29
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 8.80" h x .55" w x 5.65" l, .55 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 208 pages
From Publishers Weekly
Arriving a few years too late to slap some reality into the legions of day traders suckered by the stock market gold rush, TV game show host Stein's latest is still a smart, commonsense guide to investing. Stein and DeMuth's primary dispute is with the old adage that one can never tell when the market is going to go up or down, something they attempt to disprove with a wealth of charts showing how to buy stocks cheaply over the long term (as in decades). This is no get-rich-quick scheme, merely a case being made to, in essence, treat the Street like many fans treat baseball: work the numbers. In between the sizable chunks of data, Stein and DeMuth drop in bits of advice, e.g., pay more attention to the S&P 500's trends than frequently slippery P/E ratios; invest in bonds before stocks-they're more stable; and always, always buy low. Best of all is a three-page cautionary list that should be required reading for anyone even thinking of investing. Some of the better nuggets: "Does the word `synergy' appear in the prospectus?... Run!"; "Never accept any unsolicited financial advice"; and "Do not invest in a store because you see a lot of customers there at the mall or because you like the coffee or blue jeans or jelly beans. Sales do not equal profits." Again, where was this book when we needed it?
Copyright 2003 Reed Business Information, Inc.
Review
Arriving a few years too late to slap some reality into the legions of day traders suckered by the stock market gold rush, TV game show host Stein's latest is still a smart, commonsense guide to investing. Stein and DeMuth's primary dispute is with the old adage that one can never tell when the market is going to go up or down, something they attempt to disprove with a wealth of charts showing how to buy stocks cheaply over the long term (as in decades). This is no get-rich-quick scheme, merely a case being made to, in essence, treat the Street like many fans treat baseball: work the numbers. In between the sizable chunks of data, Stein and DeMuth drop in bits of advice, e.g., pay more attention to the S&P 500's trends than frequently slippery P/E ratios; invest in bonds before stocks-they're more stable; and always, always buy low. Best of all is a three-page cautionary list that should be required reading for anyone even thinking of investing. Some of the better nuggets: "Does the word 'synergy' appear in the prospectus?...Run!"; "Never accept any unsolicited financial advice"; and "Do not invest in a store because you see a lot of customers there at the mall or because you like the coffee or blue jeans or jelly beans. Sales do not equal profits." Again, where was this book when we needed it? (Apr.) (Publishers Weekly, March 24, 2003)
Stein may be known for the droll sense of humor he exhibits on his Comedy Central show, Win Ben Stein's Money, but it is hardly evident in this straightforward investment guide. Writing with coauthor DeMuth, an investment adviser, the former Nixon speechwriter counters the "conventional wisdom" that investors cannot time (or predict) their investment decisions to maximize profits. The authors cite a number of technical factors - e.g., Tobin's Q, price/earnings, dividend yield, price to cash flow, and price to sale - to show that careful study of these metrics demonstrates that some times are better than others for going into the market or buying a particular stock. They also show that protestations to the contrary, the "street" frequently times the market. Eighty tables and graphs are used to buttress their case. Stein's popularity and the use of his face on the book's cover may draw readers beyond the usual investment crowd, though some may find this joke-free treatment a bit too technical. Still, it is a competently written, well-argued case for a sensible investment approach and is quite suitable for academic and larger public libraries. — Patrick J. Brunet, Western Wisconsin Technology Coll., La Crosse. (Library Journal, May 1, 2003)
"...it's readable, coherent, sensible, good-natured..." (Barron's, May 26, 2003)
From the Inside Flap
Economist, financial fraud buster, writer, celebrity, and all-around smart guy Ben Stein teams up with investor advisor and psychologist Phil DeMuth to prove that Yes, You Can Time the Market! Though the common wisdom on Wall Street says market timing doesn’t work, the authors sifted through a hundred years of stock market data and discovered that fundamental valuation metrics clearly show when the market is over- or under-priced. In fact, timing the market is just a matter of patience–something Wall Street doesn’t have.
In this smart, simple book, Stein and DeMuth show you how to use the tools of technical analysis to determine the relative "cheapness" or "expensiveness" of the market as a whole at any given moment. They demonstrate that basic criteria like dividend yield and price to earnings ratio are like clocks that can tell you when it’s a good time to jump into an index fund, the stock market, or when you’d be better off putting your money in bonds, real estate, or cash.
You’ll find no gimmicks or get-rich-quick schemes here, just the information you need to tell a good investing climate from a bad one. Timing the market is safer and more profitable than keeping your money in stocks all the time. In fact, an investor using Stein and DeMuth’s system would have bought stocks in fifteen out of fifteen of the best investing years for long-term investors since 1926, while staying out of the market during the worst fifteen years. Market timing not only offers superior returns over the long run, but it can also protect you from short-term catastrophe.
Yes, You Can Time the Market! But don’t just take the authors’ word for it, see for yourself with charts, graphs, tables, and a wealth of stock market data. Stein and DeMuth have done all the heavy lifting for you. All you have to do is follow their advice and look forward to a more prosperous future. Written for those who want to preserve capital and build wealth steadily, this book offers prudent, bedrock advice for investors who can no longer afford to play games with their money.
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